Sunday, February 10, 2008

I realize it's dangerous to go on record with these sorts of things...

but people keep asking me about politics. For your entertainment (and my future humiliation), here are a few predictions and thoughts about the election cycle. Some of my thoughts are well-grounded in political science theory, courtesy of my poli-sci colleagues at NCSU. Some are totally mine. See if you can guess which are which:

  1. When I visited y'all in January, I predicted that Obama would be the next president. He is now the favorite to win the nomination. I stand by my prediction, but...
  2. I also said the Republicans had no chance. Now that McCain is likely to win the Republican nomination, I am giving the Republicans a 1 in 3 chance. McCain is the least conservative of the Republicans and is a nightmare match up for Hillary or Obama...
  3. Related to #2: If you were a Romney supporter, do not mourn. He would have gotten destroyed by Hillary or Obama. It would have been embarrassing and sad. Better to bow out now than destroy your party's chances. He was smart enough to realize this.
  4. Hillary will not win the Democratic nomination. Stick a fork in her--she's done.
  5. The above may not be true. Clintons have been known to rise from political death.
  6. A big chunk of Obama's appeal is the "empty shell" factor. Most people don't know what he stands for and tend to project whatever they want him to be onto him. Policy-wise he isn't much different than Hillary, yet many many people support Obama and strongly dislike Clinton. The Republicans strategy in the general election will be to undermine this by defining him as a liberal.
  7. Ron Paul is not a libertarian or Republican. He is a crazy man. Use him as a protest vote if you must, but please realize that a movement to the gold standard is an insane economic idea.
  8. Mike Huckabee gives me the heebee-geebies.
Those are my thoughts for now. Stay tuned.

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